The Cold Email Funnel
Every cold email campaign follows a predictable funnel:
``
Emails Sent
↓ (Deliverability)
Emails Delivered
↓ (Reply Rate)
Replies
↓ (Positive %)
Positive Replies
↓ (Meeting %)
Meetings
↓ (Close Rate)
Closed Deals
``
Understanding each stage helps you set realistic expectations and identify bottlenecks.
The Numbers at Each Stage
Stage 1: Deliverability
Emails Sent → Emails Delivered
| Factor | Target | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Bounce rate | <3% | 97%+ delivery |
| Inbox placement | >90% | Effective delivery |
| Net delivery | ~85-90% | Actual inbox reach |
Stage 2: Reply Rate
Emails Delivered → Replies
| Performance | Rate | From 900 Delivered |
|---|---|---|
| Below average | 1% | 9 replies |
| Average | 3% | 27 replies |
| Good | 5% | 45 replies |
| Excellent | 8% | 72 replies |
Stage 3: Positive Replies
Total Replies → Positive Replies
Typical distribution of replies:
- 50-60% positive (interested, questions, meeting requests)
- 20-30% neutral (not now, send info)
- 10-20% negative (unsubscribe, not interested)
Example: 30 replies → 18 positive, 6 neutral, 6 negative
Stage 4: Meetings
Positive Replies → Meetings Booked
| Conversion | Rate | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 30-40% | Slow follow-up, weak process |
| Average | 50-60% | Standard follow-up |
| Good | 70-80% | Fast, professional follow-up |
Stage 5: Close Rate
Meetings → Closed Deals
This varies dramatically by:
- Deal size
- Sales process complexity
- Product/market fit
| Deal Size | Typical Close Rate |
|---|---|
| <$5k | 20-30% |
| $5-20k | 15-25% |
| $20-100k | 10-20% |
| >$100k | 5-15% |
Full Funnel Example
Starting point: 1,000 emails sent
| Stage | Conversion | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Delivered | 90% | 900 |
| Replied | 4% | 36 |
| Positive | 55% | 20 |
| Meeting | 60% | 12 |
| Closed | 25% | 3 |
Using Funnel Math for Planning
Question: "How many emails do I need to send to get 10 new customers per month?"
Calculation (using averages):
- Need: 10 customers
- Close rate: 25% → Need 40 meetings
- Meeting rate: 60% → Need 67 positive replies
- Positive rate: 55% → Need 122 total replies
- Reply rate: 4% → Need 3,050 delivered
- Delivery rate: 90% → Need 3,400 emails sent
Answer: About 3,500 emails per month, or ~170 per business day
Where to Focus for Improvement
| Bottleneck | High-Impact Fix |
|---|---|
| Low reply rate | Better targeting, messaging |
| Few positive replies | Stronger offer |
| Low meeting conversion | Faster follow-up |
| Poor close rate | Sales process, qualification |
Key Takeaway
Know your numbers at each stage. Small improvements compound: 1% better at each stage = significant more closed deals. Focus on your weakest stage first.